Lubben points out that although Greece has gotten a lot of media attention for its relatively high chances of going into default, that France's CDS has declined (We say decline but the numbers themselves actually rise) more on a percentage basis this year (26.33 to 37.84). Germany has also had a bigger percentage decline and of course Iceland is in shambles with 639.42. California is between Lithuania and Greece, more likely to default than Lithuania and less likely than Greece. California is at 327.
Lubben explains, and below I quote directly from his site, which gets the numbers from Bloomberg:
" all prices are for 5 year CDS and come from Bloomberg. CDS prices are in basis points, so that California's price suggests that one would have to pay 3.27% of the amount you want to buy protection against (or $3.27 for every $100 of protection)."
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